Shipped versus Sold
02/05/13 16:21 Filed in: iPad
Today’s IDG sales figures are good news for Apple. Their year on year growth was 65% with 19.5 million iPads shipping in the first quarter of 2013. However we would caution against reading too much into these figures.
Click here to view the IDC chart.
The number stated can only be estimates as companies such as Microsoft and Amazon do not reveal the number of tablets sold. Furthermore, it seems that IDG quote figures for numbers of tablets shipped and not the real number of tablets sold. Only Apple give the number of iPads it sells for each quarter. It is hard to tell what percentage of these tablet shipments on the IDG chart are left unsold or are returned to the supplier. In December, Blackberry wrote off $485 million in PlayBook inventory, bringing the cost to the company of its tablet adventures to $1.5 billion.
There are three figures to look out for (if a company gives hints to their real numbers): the number of tablets manufactured, the number shipped and most importantly, the number sold. Many companies seem to give indications about the numbers shipped but fewer are revealing the numbers actually sold and in the hands of consumers..
Click here to view the IDC chart.
The number stated can only be estimates as companies such as Microsoft and Amazon do not reveal the number of tablets sold. Furthermore, it seems that IDG quote figures for numbers of tablets shipped and not the real number of tablets sold. Only Apple give the number of iPads it sells for each quarter. It is hard to tell what percentage of these tablet shipments on the IDG chart are left unsold or are returned to the supplier. In December, Blackberry wrote off $485 million in PlayBook inventory, bringing the cost to the company of its tablet adventures to $1.5 billion.
There are three figures to look out for (if a company gives hints to their real numbers): the number of tablets manufactured, the number shipped and most importantly, the number sold. Many companies seem to give indications about the numbers shipped but fewer are revealing the numbers actually sold and in the hands of consumers..
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What next for Apple?
Yesterday’s results revealed both good and bad news for Apple. On the good side they reported $43.6 billion in revenue, compared to last year when they reported $39.2 billion for Q2. iPhone sales were up 7% year on year, with iPad sales up a huge 65%- this is the key part of the Q2 story.
On the negative side, profits were down to $9.5 billion compared to $11.6 billion in Q2 2012. That’s quite a big drop, especially when you look at revenue increasing in the quarter. But what seems to be at play here is the success of the iPad mini. Apple say that the mini makes up the majority of all iPad sales and its margin is far lower than the larger iPad. Apple at present seem to be ok about letting their margins dip while share grows. Apple dominates the “tablet” (iPad) market and they have done this by adding the new mini to grab the smaller device market before a competitor can undermine their position. If we look back, the same happened in the iPod market in the 00s when Apple added the iPod mini, followed by the iPod nano. The smaller form appealed to consumers and it became the biggest selling model.
Good news
The good news is the iPad figure. The continuing dominance of the iPad means that Apple’s is still the default tablet. As home customers and increasingly corporate buyers move away from PCs, the iPad is becoming the device of choice. This combined with the figures for iCloud, where Apple now have 300m accounts, means that iOS is a unique environment. iTunes accounted for $2.4 billion in revenue this quarter from sales of music, apps, films and books etc.
The Mac too is holding its own, especially in turbulent times. Overall PC sales are down about 14% (according to IDC), so Apple’s relatively flat sales are a good result for the quarter. This is especially true when you consider that the iMac was not in full supply until well into the quarter, with supply problems since its December release.
Bad news
The problem for Apple may lie in what comes next. Cook mentioned that new products were coming in the autumn and this may signal a quiet quarter on the hardware front. Apple’s attention seems to now be on WWDC and software announcements, with iOS 7 and OS X 10.9 expected to be key parts of the June event.
iPhone sales will fall away in Q3 just as they always have in the past, in anticipation of the next model being announced. Customers have become very savvy at this and most people will tell you that buying an iPhone in the summer is a bad idea (unless you are being offered a good deal for the soon-to-be-replaced handset).
iPad sales will also be mixed. Speculation about the next model may drive sales down and yet the start of the education buying season, with students returning to school and university, may help balance the figures. However we still expect this to be the lowest quarter of the year for iPad and iPhone, Apple’s two strongest product categories.
Exceptions
Cook referred to new product announcements in the Autumn but there is still the possibility of a new Mac Pro being announced at WWDC. This is the logical place for such a statement. Apple has shied away from hardware at WWDC in recent years, but the Mac Pro is an inexcusable gap in the Apple Mac lineup.
There may also be some refreshing of processors in the laptop lines, possibly to boost the education season. This could wait until the Autumn, but that way all categories may be refreshed in one go, something that Apple may avoid in an attempt to spread out the good news. It’s is also worth noting that any refresh of Macs always happen after any back to education sales offers. This may mean any changes come late in the quarter.
Outlook
Overall we expect Q3 to be about strategy- the next version of iOS and OS X setting the pace for the year. Apple have already indicated that revenue will be between $33.5 and $35.5 billion with a gross margin of 36-37%, lower than in Q2. In Q3 of last year sales were at $35 billion and so ben Apple expect a flat year over year set of results.
However this does all lead us to Q4 and more importantly Q1 2014, where new products come on stream. Q1 is Apple’s Christmas quarter and is always a blow-out set of results and we see no reason why this will not continue. Indeed Cook referred to a new product segment in the conference call and that means one thing- a new leg on the Apple table. Apart from a revised iPhone and iPad, and updated Macs and iPods, it looks certain that they will enter a new market before the end of the calendar year. If investors are looking for signs of growth for the end of 2013 and into 2014, Cook presented them with a perfect hint to what’s next for Apple..
On the negative side, profits were down to $9.5 billion compared to $11.6 billion in Q2 2012. That’s quite a big drop, especially when you look at revenue increasing in the quarter. But what seems to be at play here is the success of the iPad mini. Apple say that the mini makes up the majority of all iPad sales and its margin is far lower than the larger iPad. Apple at present seem to be ok about letting their margins dip while share grows. Apple dominates the “tablet” (iPad) market and they have done this by adding the new mini to grab the smaller device market before a competitor can undermine their position. If we look back, the same happened in the iPod market in the 00s when Apple added the iPod mini, followed by the iPod nano. The smaller form appealed to consumers and it became the biggest selling model.
Good news
The good news is the iPad figure. The continuing dominance of the iPad means that Apple’s is still the default tablet. As home customers and increasingly corporate buyers move away from PCs, the iPad is becoming the device of choice. This combined with the figures for iCloud, where Apple now have 300m accounts, means that iOS is a unique environment. iTunes accounted for $2.4 billion in revenue this quarter from sales of music, apps, films and books etc.
The Mac too is holding its own, especially in turbulent times. Overall PC sales are down about 14% (according to IDC), so Apple’s relatively flat sales are a good result for the quarter. This is especially true when you consider that the iMac was not in full supply until well into the quarter, with supply problems since its December release.
Bad news
The problem for Apple may lie in what comes next. Cook mentioned that new products were coming in the autumn and this may signal a quiet quarter on the hardware front. Apple’s attention seems to now be on WWDC and software announcements, with iOS 7 and OS X 10.9 expected to be key parts of the June event.
iPhone sales will fall away in Q3 just as they always have in the past, in anticipation of the next model being announced. Customers have become very savvy at this and most people will tell you that buying an iPhone in the summer is a bad idea (unless you are being offered a good deal for the soon-to-be-replaced handset).
iPad sales will also be mixed. Speculation about the next model may drive sales down and yet the start of the education buying season, with students returning to school and university, may help balance the figures. However we still expect this to be the lowest quarter of the year for iPad and iPhone, Apple’s two strongest product categories.
Exceptions
Cook referred to new product announcements in the Autumn but there is still the possibility of a new Mac Pro being announced at WWDC. This is the logical place for such a statement. Apple has shied away from hardware at WWDC in recent years, but the Mac Pro is an inexcusable gap in the Apple Mac lineup.
There may also be some refreshing of processors in the laptop lines, possibly to boost the education season. This could wait until the Autumn, but that way all categories may be refreshed in one go, something that Apple may avoid in an attempt to spread out the good news. It’s is also worth noting that any refresh of Macs always happen after any back to education sales offers. This may mean any changes come late in the quarter.
Outlook
Overall we expect Q3 to be about strategy- the next version of iOS and OS X setting the pace for the year. Apple have already indicated that revenue will be between $33.5 and $35.5 billion with a gross margin of 36-37%, lower than in Q2. In Q3 of last year sales were at $35 billion and so ben Apple expect a flat year over year set of results.
However this does all lead us to Q4 and more importantly Q1 2014, where new products come on stream. Q1 is Apple’s Christmas quarter and is always a blow-out set of results and we see no reason why this will not continue. Indeed Cook referred to a new product segment in the conference call and that means one thing- a new leg on the Apple table. Apart from a revised iPhone and iPad, and updated Macs and iPods, it looks certain that they will enter a new market before the end of the calendar year. If investors are looking for signs of growth for the end of 2013 and into 2014, Cook presented them with a perfect hint to what’s next for Apple..
New Products for 2013
Now that we are in April it is likely that there will be new products in the next few weeks. We say this for these reasons:
- Apple normally refresh the iPad range at this time of the year, with the iPad 4 being the one exception
- the MacBook Air line was refreshed in June 2012 and so may be ready for a change
- the education buying season starts in early summer and Apple traditionally updates Macs aimed at this market
However...
- the iPods will not be refreshed until the Autumn
- Apple have recently caught up with iMac demand and so a refresh is unlikely until late 2013
- the Mac Pro is crying out for an update, although we would bet this will happen at the WWDC conference this summer
- the iPhone will be updated in the usual timeframe, between June-Sept.
- Apple normally refresh the iPad range at this time of the year, with the iPad 4 being the one exception
- the MacBook Air line was refreshed in June 2012 and so may be ready for a change
- the education buying season starts in early summer and Apple traditionally updates Macs aimed at this market
However...
- the iPods will not be refreshed until the Autumn
- Apple have recently caught up with iMac demand and so a refresh is unlikely until late 2013
- the Mac Pro is crying out for an update, although we would bet this will happen at the WWDC conference this summer
- the iPhone will be updated in the usual timeframe, between June-Sept.
“Ron Johnson is the Steve Jobs of the retail industry…"
09/04/13 14:50 Filed in: Retail
The company’s board said on Monday that Mr. Johnson, who engineered Apple’s retail strategy, is leaving Penney and that Myron E. Ullman III, who had been C.E.O. at the retailer for seven years until Mr. Johnson took over, has returned to the helm.
With Ron Johnson out of J. C. Penney, surely it is almost too easy to see him rejoining Apple, back to a position he held until 2011? Apple are currently without a retail chief after they parted company with John Browett.
Just to note- this was the way J. C. Penny saw Johnson in June 2011: “Ron Johnson is the Steve Jobs of the retail industry”. How things change..
Tip: Using GrandPerspective to Spring Clean Your Mac
Ever wondered where all of your hard disk space has vanished to? One great software gem is GrandPerspective, as it gives a quick overview of your hard drive and what is using up your space.
GrandPerspective is a free app which scans your HD (or home folder) and gives you a visual overview of the size of the files on your drive. After downloading the .dmg file (from this link), open it and drag the GrandPerspective app to the Applications folder. Then open it from Applications and when it opens, choose “Scan Folder” from the File menu and select your “Home” folder (the one with the house icon in the sidebar!).
GrandPerspective will scan and then return a visual map of all of the files in your home folder. The large blocks are the memory hogs, the small ones are best left alone. It is likely that your iPhoto library will be one of the large pieces as it contains all of the photos and videos in your iPhoto app.
If you hover the pointer over the large blocks, it will give the location at the bottom of the window. This will help you to look for this file afterwards and possibly delete the file if it is no longer needed.
Remember that once you spring-clean your files, you need to empty the Trash can. Open the Trash and use the “Empty Trash” button in the top right of the window.
GrandPerspective is a free app which scans your HD (or home folder) and gives you a visual overview of the size of the files on your drive. After downloading the .dmg file (from this link), open it and drag the GrandPerspective app to the Applications folder. Then open it from Applications and when it opens, choose “Scan Folder” from the File menu and select your “Home” folder (the one with the house icon in the sidebar!).
GrandPerspective will scan and then return a visual map of all of the files in your home folder. The large blocks are the memory hogs, the small ones are best left alone. It is likely that your iPhoto library will be one of the large pieces as it contains all of the photos and videos in your iPhoto app.
If you hover the pointer over the large blocks, it will give the location at the bottom of the window. This will help you to look for this file afterwards and possibly delete the file if it is no longer needed.
Remember that once you spring-clean your files, you need to empty the Trash can. Open the Trash and use the “Empty Trash” button in the top right of the window.
Tip: Remove Adobe Reader As Your Internet PDF Viewer
One thing which always irritates us is when an application takes over and there is not an obvious way to stop it. Adobe Reader, Adobe’s PDF viewing application, does exactly this.
If you install Reader it will add some internet plugins for your Safari web browser. This means that when you click to view a PDF on a website, the document opens in the Adobe environment and not using Apple’s built-in Preview app.
We like the Preview toolbar which appears over a PDF in Safari (above)- we particularly like the button which allows us to open that PDF in the Preview app.
To get rid of the Adobe system and return to using Preview as your default PDF viewer, you need to follow these steps:
1/ open your Mac HD -> Library -> Internet Plugins
2/ move the Adobe plugins to the Trash:
3/ quit and reopen Safari
It is a simple step but not that obvious. There is no option in the Safari extensions preferences to turn off Adobe Reader. However this simple clean-out should do the trick.
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If you install Reader it will add some internet plugins for your Safari web browser. This means that when you click to view a PDF on a website, the document opens in the Adobe environment and not using Apple’s built-in Preview app.
We like the Preview toolbar which appears over a PDF in Safari (above)- we particularly like the button which allows us to open that PDF in the Preview app.
To get rid of the Adobe system and return to using Preview as your default PDF viewer, you need to follow these steps:
1/ open your Mac HD -> Library -> Internet Plugins
2/ move the Adobe plugins to the Trash:
3/ quit and reopen Safari
It is a simple step but not that obvious. There is no option in the Safari extensions preferences to turn off Adobe Reader. However this simple clean-out should do the trick.
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If there is one thing you do this week...
10/03/13 22:09 Filed in: OS X
If there is one step you take this week, let it be a scan of your hard drive. Now of course we assume you backup on a regular basis because anything else is sheer stupidity or you have nothing of value on your Mac and welcome a hard drive meltdown with open arms...
Take a look in your Applications folder for Utilities, and then inside here you will find Disk Utility. Open it up, select your Mac HD on the left and then click on the “verify disk” button. Wait a few minutes for a result. All going well, you should receive a message telling you that the Mac HD appears to be ok. If you get a bad result, such as that the drive needs to be repaired, backup immediately- no excuses and no delays. With your information secured you can then look at repairing the drive using OS X Recovery.
You should run this every month to ensure you do not lose data. No point in thinking about this stuff after the event….
Take a look in your Applications folder for Utilities, and then inside here you will find Disk Utility. Open it up, select your Mac HD on the left and then click on the “verify disk” button. Wait a few minutes for a result. All going well, you should receive a message telling you that the Mac HD appears to be ok. If you get a bad result, such as that the drive needs to be repaired, backup immediately- no excuses and no delays. With your information secured you can then look at repairing the drive using OS X Recovery.
You should run this every month to ensure you do not lose data. No point in thinking about this stuff after the event….
Next iteration of the iPhone: reality vs fantasy
As we approach the summer, rumours of the next iPhone are beginning to emerge. The problem is that there will be two sets of expectations: those who know the pattern that Apple follows, and those who now expect a “brand new” iPhone.
If we look back at the history of the iPhone we see that it has always followed a pattern- a changed phone form followed by a iterative update. This was the new iPhone 3G followed by the updated 3GS, the newly shaped iPhone 4 followed by the refined iPhone 4S. Therefore all signals point to the iPhone 5, introduced last autumn, being followed by a new iPhone 5S this summer/autumn. The iPhone 5 was a new lighter version, with a larger screen faster chip and support for the new LTE/4G networks. The expectations for this autumn should be an updated version of this design, with a faster chip inside, better camera and new version of iOS.
The problem is that this does not stop the fanciful comments about the need for a brand new iPhone 6 now, breaking the well trodden path which Apple has set out over the last six years. The argument is that Apple has lost ground against Android and so needs a new form-factor, a new style of phone, along with a new cheap iPhone for a lower price point. But this has no basis in fact- the iPhone 5 was the top selling smartphone worldwide at the end of 2012 (12.6%), and the older iPhone 4S was in second place(8%), with the Phone 4 (first released in 2010) still in the top 5.
It is likely that Apple will continue to strengthen its position with the next iPhone, but the view that they need to release a brand new shape, or a “revolutionary” new phone, flies in the face of the stats. .
If we look back at the history of the iPhone we see that it has always followed a pattern- a changed phone form followed by a iterative update. This was the new iPhone 3G followed by the updated 3GS, the newly shaped iPhone 4 followed by the refined iPhone 4S. Therefore all signals point to the iPhone 5, introduced last autumn, being followed by a new iPhone 5S this summer/autumn. The iPhone 5 was a new lighter version, with a larger screen faster chip and support for the new LTE/4G networks. The expectations for this autumn should be an updated version of this design, with a faster chip inside, better camera and new version of iOS.
The problem is that this does not stop the fanciful comments about the need for a brand new iPhone 6 now, breaking the well trodden path which Apple has set out over the last six years. The argument is that Apple has lost ground against Android and so needs a new form-factor, a new style of phone, along with a new cheap iPhone for a lower price point. But this has no basis in fact- the iPhone 5 was the top selling smartphone worldwide at the end of 2012 (12.6%), and the older iPhone 4S was in second place(8%), with the Phone 4 (first released in 2010) still in the top 5.
It is likely that Apple will continue to strengthen its position with the next iPhone, but the view that they need to release a brand new shape, or a “revolutionary” new phone, flies in the face of the stats. .
